In later stages, chess games are about skill. In the opening, they’re about preparation.

There are x possible openings as white.

Playing x move as white on move 1 loses in x% of games on record.

Playing x move wins % of the time.

Preparation has a theoretical spread of x for a beginner.

As you get better, your preparation goes moves deeper.

The deeper your preparation the better the odds of success.

The game begins before you play it.